A push for pumped storage redux

Prior to the 2016 election I wrote an article regarding the proposed Big Chino Valley Pumped Storage plant. The estimated initial drawdown from the Big Chino aquifer to fill the plant’s two storage reservoirs is nearly 9 billion gallons—1.5 times the estimated annual base flow of the Verde River and nearly twice the estimated annual recharge rate for the entire aquifer.

After the initial fill, Big Chino’s storage reservoirs would need regular replenishment due to evaporation. The evaporation rate would be greatest during periods of drought. Consequently, the most extensive pumping from the aquifer would occur when the aquifer is most in need of replenishment.

Is it remotely possible this extraction would not affect base flow of the upper Verde River?

The project would require approximately 151 miles of 500kV transmission lines with a 200ft right-of-way.

Profitability of Big Chino Valley Pumped Storage relied on Democrat-supported federal subsidies for both plant and transmission lines. When hope for subsidies died after Hillary Clinton’s 2016 loss, Farallon Capital Management LLC divested their entire 3.88 million shares of Big Chino’s Michigan-based parent company.

Farallon Capital is a hedge fund management company founded by Tom Steyer.

In February 2018 it was reported Big Chino had again found financial backers. I don’t know who, but I can speculate why.

Tom Steyer-financed Proposition 127 would have required Arizona electricity providers (in our case APS) to buy electricity from inefficient back-up sources during periods when intermittent wind and solar sources are not producing. Big Chino Pumped Storage is the only storage source waiting to be built. Its output could be sold at a price that justifies the project’s cost if electricity providers were forced to buy it. This could be the reason upcoming Gen IV nuclear reactors—the only non-fossil-fueled source that could support electrified transportation—were excluded from the energy mix.

Fortunately, 69% of Arizona voters who don’t want their state to become another California said “no.”

Unfortunately, Big Chino Pumped Storage is not giving up. It was formed to benefit investors for whom the future of the upper Verde watershed is not likely a major concern. And if Democrats take control of government in 2020, we may see fresh subsidies and mandates that make the project profitable.

And that is worthy of concern.

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Scott ♥ Judd

An insert in last Wednesday’s Verde Independent proclaims Sheriff Scott Mascher strongly endorses Judd Simmons for the Office of Yavapai County Assessor.

Hmm. Could it be that Judd Simmons endorses a property tax increase to pay for a new county jail in Prescott?

Can school district administrators be cured of educratese?

The Verde Independent’s June 22 editorial, “We could use more leaders like Superintendent Goodwin, Mayor Currier,” notes that politicians and bureaucrats are “famous for talking a lot but never saying anything of substance.” I’ve noticed some educators in Cottonwood are particularly notable for an abundance of impressive verbiage that says little.

Back in February, Bill Helm wrote about Cottonwood-Oak Creek School District implementing the “World Café” program to provide a “powerful space for community conversations to emerge” in which “its strength comes from the way that the questions are framed and the opportunity provided for participants to move between tables and meet new people where new perspectives are exchanged.” The possibility of new insights is enriched as participants “engage in ever-widening circles of thought.”

If ever-widening thought circles in a powerful space of mingling participants fail to make your head spin, try wrapping your perspective around the “McREL Balanced Leadership Principal Evaluation System” approved at COCSD’s March 22 board meeting. This “online evaluation rubric” will ensure that school principals already imbued with “Balanced Leadership” training are fulfilling expectations of “moving their schools to a shared vision for students’ success.” This shared vision into which schools are to be moved consists of “Building a Purposeful Community, Managing Change, and Focus,” which, we are assured, are the three components necessary for successful leadership in school systems.

It is certainly commendable that school board members may now be allowed to leave their tables and meet new people with different perspectives, but I can’t help but wonder how school administrators previously schooled in administrative skills and supposedly hired to exercise those skills can possibly do their jobs when they are constantly being re-educated and tested to ensure their re-education was effective.

Perhaps straight-talkers Superintendent Goodwin and Mayor Currier should be invited to enter the powerful space of the COCSD’s World Café to examine ways COCSD administrators might explain in plain English how this jargon-infested administrative re-education helps students succeed. They could start the conversation by defining the word “symposium.”

Hot, hotter, hottest June?…

The Verde Valley didn’t get sloshed — quite the contrary, winter was dry, with record heat in February. Spring then became cool and moist, but unusually high atmospheric pressure has turned the thermostat up again this month.

New daily records were set for Cottonwood/Tuzigoot (Cottonwood station was moved to Tuzigoot National Monument in 1977), one nearly matching the all-time high of 118°F set June 26, 1994:

• 105 on June 2 broke the 1956 record of 103.
• 108 on June 3 broke the 1996 record of 106.
• 109 on June 4 broke the 1996 record of 108.
• 110 on June 5 broke the 1996 record of 107.
• 113 on June 19 broke the 1968 record of 108.
• 117 on June 20 broke the 1936 record of 109 and was 1° hotter than Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport.

Cottonwood lacked a weather station from 1937 through 1948, but it appears that average June high temperatures continue to rise. Here’s a history of new record average highs:
 1922: 97.3
 1924: 97.6
 1956: 98.7
 1960: 99.3
 1974: 102.1
 1994: 102.6
 2016: 102.7 (estimated)

Nine of the 15 hottest Junes occurred this century. Nine of the 15 coolest Junes occurred prior to 1963.

Cause for panic? No. Average global temperatures have been on the increase since the “little ice age” ended in the 1800s. It would be odd if records weren’t broken and more worrisome if most were record lows instead of highs.

Will the Verde Valley get sloshed?

Jon Hutchinson’s article in the Dec. 11 Verde Independent titled “2016 flood prospects concern Verde Valley emergency responders” reports expectation that Yavapai County will be wetter than normal during the first three months of 2016.

We are certainly in the midst of a very strong El Niño and it is prudent for Verde Valley Emergency Service responders to be “gearing up for a big flood season.” But the historical record does not suggest any reason for unusual preparations.

The heaviest January-through-March precipitation in Cottonwood/Tuzigoot’s weather station history occurred (in order of decreasing volume) in 1993, 2005, 1980, and 1978, and not one of those years was even a moderate El Niño year by NOAA’s reckoning.

In the Verde Valley, none of the previous five “strong” or “very strong” El Niños have produced exceptional precipitation during the first three months of the year. In all but the 1972-73 El Niño, precipitation during that period was at or below “normal.”

Central California residents have more cause for concern:

Sacramento’s precipitation record shows correlation between strong El Niños and heavy January through March precipitation. But here in the Verde Valley, where a dearth of precipitation is the norm, past weather is less often a predictor of what is to come. Here we should always keep an eye on weather forecasts and be prepared for the worst.

CORRECTION/ADDENDUM

Cottonwood/Tuzigoot average January-March precipitation from 1950 through 2015 is only 3 inches. Precipitation was above average during all but one of the strong and very strong El Niño years. 16 of 23 El Niño years, 9 of 23 neutral years, and 4 of 20 La Niña years had above average precipitation.

Since “normal precipitation” in the Verde Valley is rarely considered enough, I sincerely hope the National Weather Service prediction of above normal precipitation is moderately correct.